Trailing Quarter Begins Contraction

Lakewood, CO, January 20, 2010 --(PR.com)-- The Consumer Metrics Institute reported that the cumulative net performance of its Weighted Composite Index over a 91-day trailing 'quarter' turned negative on January 13th, 2010. The last time that the 91-day cumulative 'growth' slipped into net contraction was June 4th, 2008.

"We calculate our Growth Indexes daily by summing the 'area under the curve' for our Weighted Composite Index over the preceding 91, 183 and 365 consecutive daily values," said Richard Davis, President of the Consumer Metrics Institute. "On January 13th 2010 our trailing 'quarter' 91-Day Growth Index transitioned from net growth to net contraction. Additionally, by January 16th the 'growth' of our trailing 91-day 'quarter' had dropped below the 20th percentile of all calendar quarters of GDP change recorded since 1947 by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis."

Mr. Davis pointed out that although the last occurrence of a transition for a trailing 'quarter' from growth to contraction was on June 4th, 2008, "the circumstances surrounding that transition were strikingly more precipitous than what we are seeing right now. Daily readings back then were recording year-over-year contraction in excess of 5% and plunging daily, while daily readings now are closer to a 3% contraction and are relatively stable. In fact, this month's transition is more reminiscent of an even earlier growth to contraction event in June 2006, when the consequences were far milder than those experienced in the aftermath of the 2008 occurrence."

The daily Weighted Composite Index published by the Consumer Metrics Institute reached its most recent cyclical high on August 13th, 2009 and has weakened substantially since. Similarly, the trailing quarter's cumulative year-over-year growth peaked on September 1st, 2009 at 5.85%, putting the equivalent of that 'quarter' well within the top 30% of all post-1947 quarters of GDP change recorded by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. By January 16th, 2010 the Institute's trailing 'quarter' had weakened into the equivalent of the lowest 20% of historic GDP quarters with a net cumulative year-over-year contraction in excess of .2%.

About the Consumer Metrics Institute:

The Consumer Metrics Institute publishes a set of indexes reflecting day-to-day changes in consumer interest towards major discretionary purchases. These indexes are updated several times per week and are available free of charge at the Consumer Metrics Institute website. Complete historical tables of the indexes are also available for download by members of the Institute.

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