Smarkets Members Predict Outcome of the Labour Leadership Race and Electoral College

London, United Kingdom, September 27, 2010 --(PR.com)-- The Labour leadership result might have come as a surprise to many pundits, but it was correctly predicted by Smarkets members. When the Smarkets market on the Labour leadership campaign closed at 3pm this afternoon, the money of Smarkets members was on David Miliband to come first among MPs /MEPs and within ordinary party members but that Ed Miliband would sweep the trade union section and thus win overall.

Commenting on this outcome Jason Trost, CEO of Smarkets, said:

“This outcome demonstrates that the smart money comes to smart markets. The Labour leadership election has been a milestone for Smarkets as we establish ourselves as the home for political betting. The torch has been passed to a new generation of betting leaders.”

For additional comment please contact Jason Trost on +44 7511 515 676.

Notes To Editors

1. About Smarkets

Smarkets.com is a betting website that makes punting on events simple and social. Instead of betting against a bookie, with Smarkets you bet against other members and the crowd determines the market value of an outcome.

Smarkets takes a fresh look at this industry and has created a social, secure and transparent platform for betting. Founded in 2008 by Jason Trost (CEO) and Hunter Morris (CTO), Smarkets’ multi-national team works out of offices in London and is backed by a group of private investors including former Last.fm chairman Stefan Glaenzer.

2. Details of the Smarkets Labour Leadership Market

Smarkets ran four separate markets on the Labour Leadership, asking punters who would win on first preferences in each section of the Electoral College, and who would win overall. In all categories Smarkets members were shown to be correct:

Who will be the next Labour leader after Gordon Brown?

Candidate Decimal Odds Price (Implied Probability)
Ed Miliband 1.5 66.67%
David Miliband 2.99 33.44%
Andy Burnham 200 0.50%
Diane Abbott 200 0.50%
Ed Balls 250 0.40%

Who will top the first round of voting for the new Labour leader in the MPs/MEPs section of the ballot?

Candidate Decimal Odds Price (Implied Probability)
David Miliband 1.25 80.00%
Ed Miliband 2.94 34.01%
Diane Abbott 5.99 16.69%
Ed Balls 20 5.00%
Andy Burnham - -

Who will top the first round of voting for the new Labour leader in the membership section of the ballot?

Candidate Decimal Odds Price (Implied Probability)
David Miliband 1.49 67.11%
Ed Miliband 2.24 44.64%
Ed Balls 20 5.00%
Diane Abbott 33.33 3.00%
Andy Burnham 54.94 1.82%

Who will top the first round of voting for the new Labour leader in the trade union section of the ballot?

Candidate Decimal Odds Price (Implied Probability)
Ed Miliband 1.66 60.24%
Ed Balls 5.26 19.01%
Diane Abbott 8.33 12.00%
David Miliband 8.9 11.24%
Andy Burnham - -

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