Global Cementitious FOB Prices Remain Flat in 1Q2016
Global FOB prices for gray cement are estimated to have declined to March 2016 by 0.3% as compared to December 2015, according to preliminary figures presented in the CW Research’s 1Q2016 update to its benchmark price assessment for worldwide trade of gray cement, white cement, clinker, and slag, as well as ex-works and effective market prices: Global Cement Trade Price Report (GCTPR).
Greenwich, CT, June 01, 2016 --(PR.com)-- CW Research expects FOB rates to recover marginally by June 2016, when the global average is projected to improve at a 0.1% rate from March levels. On the other hand, estimations indicate that slag export prices have fallen by 3.2% in March 2016 as opposed to December 2015, while the quarter to June 2016 is projected to bring about a further 1.8% decline.
Global consumption of the building material will decline by 1.9 percent in 2016, primarily driven by slowdown in China. “The decline in global sales, coupled with overcapacity in some exporting markets, will pressure exporters to find other markets, therefore affecting cement prices. The global economic growth scenario remains bleak due to China’s slower growth model, commodity price declines, and overhangs from past rapid credit growth. Advanced economies are pointing to a stronger outlook when compared to the recent past, while developing and emerging ones are under pressure”, says Robert Madeira, CW Group Managing Director and Head of Research.
The global trade of cementitious products has generally seen a declining trend in both volumes and prices in the quarter to December 2015. Notably, the global average for gray cement, aggregated in December 2015 for a set of 25 reporting countries, fell by 12.6 percent YoY.
“On top of declining demand for cement, the decline in FOB prices for cement can also be traced back to currency depreciations in most major cement markets. Global FOB prices for gray cement are projected to drop further in most areas, while regions such as Asia-Pacific-Japan and Western Europe could see marginal recovery in export prices. Median prices have declined further in January 2016,” says Stefana Abiculesei, Consulting Analyst with the CW Group’s European team.
CW Research’s Global Cement Trade Price Report projects export prices in Asia-Pacific-Japan to continue recovery at a modest pace by June 2016, up 0.7 percent as compared to estimated prices for March 2016. In the Mediterranean Basin, prices are under more pressure. CW Research analysts expect prices to decline by 0.2 percent as compared to estimated levels in March.
This average selling prices decline is most severe in China where ex-works prices were down 23 percent QoQ, according to CW Research’s Global Cement Trade Price Report. The U.S. saw stronger pricing on account of sustained economic recovery. Average ex-work prices reached more than USD 100 per ton in 4Q2015, up 9 percent as compared to the previous quarter.
White cement export volumes totaled 4.1 million tons in 2015, with export prices posting a slight decline in terms of median prices, but with more stable FOB prices than for gray cement. CW Research’s benchmark price assessment projects prices to decline in June 2016 in Asia Pacific-Japan to USD 129.9 per ton, down from an estimated USD 131.5 per ton in March 2016. Stable pricing is expected in the Mediterranean Basin.
As far as clinker is concerned, total global traded clinker volumes (including countries with incomplete data sets for the period) decreased by 11.1 percent QoQ in 4Q2015. For the set of reporting countries with complete data for the fourth quarter of 2015, the trade volume for clinker increased by 14.5 percent QoQ and the global average FOB price declined by 3.7 percent QoQ.
Median slag prices on a global level registered an 18.3 percent QoQ decline in December 2015, while global slag export volumes fell by 2.8 percent YoY. Asia-Pacific-Japan continued to be the leading region with a share of 90.9 percent of global slag exports. Notably, Japan is the main slag exporter in the world, with the lowest export price in 4Q2015, while India and France were the second and the third largest exporters of slag.
“Several developments that marked 2015 will continue to leave their imprint in 2016, but by far the most pressing issues in 2016 will be sluggish capital flows to emerging and developing countries, anemic trade and continuously weakening commodity prices,” added Stefana Abiculesei.
For more information or interview inquiries, please contact Luciana Murarasu, Marketing & Communications Coordinator, CW Group (Europe), by phone at +40-748-91-84-50, or e-mail at lm@cwgrp.com.
About the Report
The Global Cement Trade Price Report (GCTPR) is CW Research’s benchmark price assessment for monthly gray cement, white cement, clinker and granulated blast furnace slag prices and volumes. The 180+ page report, published on a quarterly basis, serves as the industry go to source for monthly price data for 70+ individual markets worldwide, including multiple cornerstone data series: import, export, ex-works and market prices. Additionally, the GCTPR includes extensive discussion of key players’ price strategies as well as trade price forecast and select trade volumes for each country. The report also provides regional price indices as well as a quick review of trading dynamics and drivers in the different regions. More information about the report can be found here: http://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-products/product/1-global-cement-trade-price-report
Global consumption of the building material will decline by 1.9 percent in 2016, primarily driven by slowdown in China. “The decline in global sales, coupled with overcapacity in some exporting markets, will pressure exporters to find other markets, therefore affecting cement prices. The global economic growth scenario remains bleak due to China’s slower growth model, commodity price declines, and overhangs from past rapid credit growth. Advanced economies are pointing to a stronger outlook when compared to the recent past, while developing and emerging ones are under pressure”, says Robert Madeira, CW Group Managing Director and Head of Research.
The global trade of cementitious products has generally seen a declining trend in both volumes and prices in the quarter to December 2015. Notably, the global average for gray cement, aggregated in December 2015 for a set of 25 reporting countries, fell by 12.6 percent YoY.
“On top of declining demand for cement, the decline in FOB prices for cement can also be traced back to currency depreciations in most major cement markets. Global FOB prices for gray cement are projected to drop further in most areas, while regions such as Asia-Pacific-Japan and Western Europe could see marginal recovery in export prices. Median prices have declined further in January 2016,” says Stefana Abiculesei, Consulting Analyst with the CW Group’s European team.
CW Research’s Global Cement Trade Price Report projects export prices in Asia-Pacific-Japan to continue recovery at a modest pace by June 2016, up 0.7 percent as compared to estimated prices for March 2016. In the Mediterranean Basin, prices are under more pressure. CW Research analysts expect prices to decline by 0.2 percent as compared to estimated levels in March.
This average selling prices decline is most severe in China where ex-works prices were down 23 percent QoQ, according to CW Research’s Global Cement Trade Price Report. The U.S. saw stronger pricing on account of sustained economic recovery. Average ex-work prices reached more than USD 100 per ton in 4Q2015, up 9 percent as compared to the previous quarter.
White cement export volumes totaled 4.1 million tons in 2015, with export prices posting a slight decline in terms of median prices, but with more stable FOB prices than for gray cement. CW Research’s benchmark price assessment projects prices to decline in June 2016 in Asia Pacific-Japan to USD 129.9 per ton, down from an estimated USD 131.5 per ton in March 2016. Stable pricing is expected in the Mediterranean Basin.
As far as clinker is concerned, total global traded clinker volumes (including countries with incomplete data sets for the period) decreased by 11.1 percent QoQ in 4Q2015. For the set of reporting countries with complete data for the fourth quarter of 2015, the trade volume for clinker increased by 14.5 percent QoQ and the global average FOB price declined by 3.7 percent QoQ.
Median slag prices on a global level registered an 18.3 percent QoQ decline in December 2015, while global slag export volumes fell by 2.8 percent YoY. Asia-Pacific-Japan continued to be the leading region with a share of 90.9 percent of global slag exports. Notably, Japan is the main slag exporter in the world, with the lowest export price in 4Q2015, while India and France were the second and the third largest exporters of slag.
“Several developments that marked 2015 will continue to leave their imprint in 2016, but by far the most pressing issues in 2016 will be sluggish capital flows to emerging and developing countries, anemic trade and continuously weakening commodity prices,” added Stefana Abiculesei.
For more information or interview inquiries, please contact Luciana Murarasu, Marketing & Communications Coordinator, CW Group (Europe), by phone at +40-748-91-84-50, or e-mail at lm@cwgrp.com.
About the Report
The Global Cement Trade Price Report (GCTPR) is CW Research’s benchmark price assessment for monthly gray cement, white cement, clinker and granulated blast furnace slag prices and volumes. The 180+ page report, published on a quarterly basis, serves as the industry go to source for monthly price data for 70+ individual markets worldwide, including multiple cornerstone data series: import, export, ex-works and market prices. Additionally, the GCTPR includes extensive discussion of key players’ price strategies as well as trade price forecast and select trade volumes for each country. The report also provides regional price indices as well as a quick review of trading dynamics and drivers in the different regions. More information about the report can be found here: http://www.cwgrp.com/research/research-products/product/1-global-cement-trade-price-report
Contact
CW Group / CemWeek
Luciana Murarasu
+1-702-866-9474
www.cwgrp.com
Luciana Murarasu
+1-702-866-9474
www.cwgrp.com
Contact
Categories